Mammal makeup
a shifting climate has
brought changes to small-mammal communities
in the northern parts of
michigan’s lower peninsula. communities there
have become dominated
by species typically more
common in southern
climes, such as the white-footed mouse.
Nfs Wjm
Community composition
1857–1980
Rbv
Wdm
species with southern affinities
species with northern affinities
source: p. myers ET AL/
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2009
at Austin and economist Gary Yohe of
Wesleyan University in Middletown,
Conn., performed various analyses on
data from independent studies on more
than 1,700 animal, plant and lichen species. Parmesan and Yohe also found
biological trends that matched climate
change predictions. Butterflies, birds
and other organisms had shifted their
ranges northward by an average of
6. 1 kilometers per decade (or 6. 1 meters
per decade upward to higher altitudes).
Amphibians and migratory birds, among
others, were breeding earlier in the
spring by an average of two days per
decade (SN: 3/8/03, p. 152).
Since then, researchers around the
world have been piling up more and
more examples of particular animals or
suites of species showing changes that
fit the same patterns (as well as some
that don’t). On the range-shifting side
of the story, more than half of 305 common North American birds are wintering farther north than they did in 1966,
a National Audubon Society analysis
showed in 2009 (SN Online: 2/10/09).
The shifts, which average 56 kilometers
and are as great as nearly 700 kilometers
for individual species, coincide with
warmer winter temperatures over the
same period.
In Michigan, opossums, white-footed
mice and other mammals
once confined to the south-
ern part of the state have
rapidly expanded north-
ward, displacing some of
their counterparts in the
process. A 2009 paper
ruled out forest regenera-
tion and land-use changes
as possible explanations for
the expansion; the authors
concluded that warming,
documented in the area
over the same period, was
the probable cause. Mean-
while, chipmunks and other
small mammals in Califor-
nia’s Yosemite National
Park have moved to higher
ground as temperatures in
the park have increased in
the last century, a 2008 study showed.
new territory than they had been in
the old home, researchers reported in
Ecological Entomology in 2008. The par-asitoids were in the new place, too, but
apparently more interested in a different butterfly species.
As for changes in seasonal activity,
frogs are calling, birds are nesting, salmon
are migrating, walleye are spawning,
loggerhead turtles are laying eggs and
bees and butterflies are appearing earlier
in the spring. Plants too are responding
by leafing out and flowering earlier (see
Page 13).
Underscoring the individual reports, a
2010 study found that seasonal events in
the United Kingdom have advanced for
most of the 726 terrestrial, freshwater
and marine plants and animals examined and that the rate of change has
sped up in recent decades. What’s more,
change was speediest in organisms at the
bottom of the food chain — plants and
plant-eaters — and slower in predators,
a situation that could result in empty
bellies for the planet’s top diners.
Mismatches can happen, too, when
interacting species respond to different
cues — say, one to day length and the other
to temperature. That’s what’s happening
with caribou in West Greenland, which
synchronize their seasonal migration to
calving grounds with day length. The food
plants on which they depend respond
to temperature, however, and as spring
temperatures in the area have risen by
more than 4 degrees Celsius, plants have
started growing earlier. Caribou are now
arriving after peak foraging time, fewer
calves are being born and more calves are
dying, a 2008 study found.
Out of sync
caribou birthing dates have
remained steady because
the schedule is timed to day
length. But the plants that
caribou feed on respond
to temperature, so they
have been emerging earlier
as temperatures in west
greenland have increased.
such mismatches could be
a common effect of climate
change.
160
Timing mismatch between caribou and plants
Day of the year
( 1 is Jan. 1)
150
140
130
2005 2006 2007
source: e. post and m.c. forchhammer/
PHIL. TRANS R. SOC. B 2008
120
2001 2002 2003 2004
emergence of 5% of forage species
first 5% of caribou births