How the shake-ups will all shake out
is hard to tell, concluded authors of a
review published last year in the
International Journal of Biometeorology. In their
roundup of climate-driven mismatches
between interacting species, environmental scientist Alison Donnelly of Trinity College Dublin and colleagues found
examples of both winners and losers, as
well as some partnerships that stayed in
sync and some previously mismatched
pairs brought into synchrony by rising
temperatures. It’s a complicated picture,
and to get a handle on how individual species and whole ecosystems will respond
to future climate change, scientists will
need to delve deeply into relationships
among species, the authors contend.
Root agrees: “What we need to be
doing now is actually figuring out how
the shifts are affecting biotic interactions so that we know what’s going to
happen as far as extinctions go.”
Big picture projects
clockwise from top left: © lynda richardson/corBis; nicholas Jr/getty images; © thomas marent/minden pictures/
corBis; © laurence f. tapper/age fotostock; dominick spolitino/getty images; © Jeff Vanuga/corBis
Teasing apart those interactions, while
continuing to document overarching
trends, will require heaps of data from
long-term monitoring projects that span
disciplines, environments, species and
food chain levels, Donnelly and coauthors say. One such effort is the USA
National Phenology Network (see Page
32). This consortium of researchers,
citizen scientists and organizations collects and shares information on plant
and animal phenology (the knowledge
of when recurring life stages happen and
how they relate to climate and change of
season).
Changes in phenology are among
the most sensitive indicators of global
change and, fortuitously, some of the
easiest to track. For centuries, people
have been paying attention to the seasonal patterns of plants and animals,
partly for enjoyment but also to know
when to hunt and fish or be on the lookout for particular crop pests. Capitalizing on that interest, the Tucson-based
network recruits volunteers to record
phenological observations on 166 species of animals and 258 species of plants
in an online Nature’s Notebook.
over the last dozen years or so, scientists have linked a plethora of changes
in the animal community to a warming climate.
Marbled salamander
(Ambystoma opacum)
fall breeding times have shifted for mem-
bers of this species living in a wetland in
south carolina, with the start of breeding
delayed by more than two weeks from
1981 to 2007.
Southern flying squirrel
(Glaucomys volans)
flying squirrels in michigan’s lower penin-
sula have expanded their range northward
in recent decades, while those in the
upper peninsula have gone eastward. the
squirrels are now found 225 kilometers
northeast of their pre-1960s range limit.
Adélie penguins
(Pygoscelis adeliae)
penguins living at four sites along the
western antarctic peninsula advance the
start of their nesting by almost two days
per degree celsius change in october
temperatures.
Small pearl-bordered fritillary
(Clossiana selene)
though the northern limit of the european
range of this butterfly remained stable
during recent decades, the southern extent
of the range contracted over the same
period — shrinking the total range.
American goldfinch
(Spinus tristis)
the midpoint of the range of this species’
wintering grounds has moved more than
300 kilometers northward in the last four
decades.
Black surfperch
(Embiotoca jacksoni)
a decline in abundance in this species
in the southern california Bight between
the early 1980s and 1995 was linked to
the drop in habitat productivity brought by
warming waters.
